Six Nations: England v Wales

England are five point favourites in their crucial Six Nations match against Wales on Sunday and on recent form they should not be able to cover that spread by winning the match by one converted try at least. Wales won the reverse fixture last year by 30-3 in Cardiff and the trends over a longer period of time suggest England should have to overcome a negligible deficit in the handicap markets.

In the history of one of the most prestigious internationals in the rugby union calendar there nothing between the two sides in terms of matches won. Both nations have beaten the other 56 times and there have been 12 draws in this series of matches. However England have scored 1603 points in 124 matches while Wales have scored 1432. That means the respective points scoring averages are 12.93 and 11.55, equating to an average points difference of 1.38 in England’s favour.

The most relevant matches in terms of trends are those over the last 10 years during which spell Wales have won six matches and lost four. Wales have won the last there fixtures but England won the previous two. In matches at Twickenham in the last decade England win to loss record is three to two. Wales beat 19-12 in the last fixture at Twickenham in 2012.

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